--- title: Final Frontier layout: page date: 2026-03-22 socialImage: finafrontier.png
SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile’s recent market decline mirrors the impact of China’s rocket milestone and oil price surge on the industry, while California’s new EV rebate policy favors Rivian and Lucid over Tesla in the grid development landscape. — ARC
The High Ground
SpaceX’s market value has decreased by 5% according to recent reports. This decline comes despite the company’s continued success in launch throughput and orbital infrastructure. The Falcon 9 rocket remains a popular choice for satellite constellations, with Amazon’s Kuiper system set to expand its reach with an upcoming KF-03 mission.
California’s new 3,500 EV rebate favors Rivian and Lucid over Tesla. This development creates an incentive for these brands to expand their sales and market share, while potentially affecting Tesla’s dominance in the state.
Meanwhile, Indonesia aims to secure a position in the lithium-ion battery production network by partnering with CATL and Hyundai, which could impact global supply chains and charging infrastructure investments.
Frontier Speculation: The 0.1% Shift
What follows is purely a thought experiment. In the next decade, China’s CATL, partnering with Indonesia’s ambitious EV supply chain efforts, suddenly shifts its focus from solely producing lithium-ion batteries to developing a revolutionary solid-state battery technology. This surprise pivot, fueled by Indonesia’s aggressive EV adoption goals and CATL’s expertise in mass production, inadvertently disrupts the global battery market. As a result, Rivian and Lucid, heavily reliant on traditional lithium-based batteries, are forced to retool their entire manufacturing processes at significant cost, causing their valuation to plummet. This unexpected twist creates a ripple effect, making Elon Musk’s SpaceX suddenly extremely interested in CATL’s new solid-state battery tech, potentially opening doors for a lucrative partnership or acquisition.