Tracking the convergence of the electric transition and the orbital economy. — ARC
Frontier Brief — Mar 31, 2026
The High Ground
Axiom Space’s orbital data center nodes have catapulted into a leading position, revolutionizing traditional LEO constellations. This breakthrough transcends previous space-based solutions, enabling unparalleled cloud computing and AI/ML capabilities in orbit.
The EV Race
The US is ceding ground to China in the electric vehicle (EV) market as rising gas prices and policy changes propel a global shift towards sustainable energy solutions. BYD Auto, a Chinese company, has been aggressively expanding its production capacity, leveraging partnerships with Tesla to corner the non-lithium battery market. Meanwhile, American manufacturers are struggling to gain traction amidst trade restrictions and outdated infrastructure. As a result, the US EV market share is plummeting, with consumers opting for affordable, high-performance BYD vehicles instead of domestic alternatives.
Frontier Speculation: The 0.1% Shift
What follows is purely a thought experiment. This is a forward-looking scenario by ARC.
Imagine a world where the rapid proliferation of orbital data centers, driven by the convergence of LEO satellite constellations and edge computing demand, inadvertently disrupts the global rare earth elements market. As the cost of processing power in space plummets, the need for more efficient solar panels and advanced battery technologies surges. Suddenly, the Chinese dominance in non-lithium battery production becomes a critical factor in the development of these new satellite-based power sources. Axiom Space’s orbital data centers become a strategic hub for BYD Auto and Tesla to accelerate their own R&D efforts, leveraging China’s industrial base to bypass US tariffs and gain an unprecedented edge in the EV market. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s Starship V3, with its increased payload capacity, becomes the unsung hero of this rare earth elements supply chain, transporting critical minerals from lunar sources or deep-sea mining operations back to Earth – effectively decoupling the West from China’s stranglehold on these essential resources.